While a radical overhaul of the world’s energy use by the end of the century is inevitable, the different possible paths to a new energy base and stabilisation of the climate hold very different costs and impacts along the way, according to a report by oil giant Shell.

Releasing Shell's '2008 Energy Scenarios to 2050' report at a speech in Brussels, Jeroen van der Veer, the chief executive of Royal Dutch Shell, said they were based on forecasts that energy demand will double by 2050 and accessible oil and gas supplies will not be able to keep up with demand beyond 2015.

The report outlines two very different scenarios under which the world could either ‘scramble’ inefficiently towards a low carbon energy base or follow an orderly set of ‘blueprints’ based on disciplined global planning and cooperation.

The scramble scenario sees nations going their own way without a comprehensive global agreement, competing for increasingly scarce oil supplies and an embarking on a widespread switch to coal, a greenhouse intensive fossil fuel.

Shell says a realistic greenhouse emissions abatement target under the blueprints scenario would be one that sees emissions peak by 2020 and be reduced to 2000 levels by 2050. This is what could produce a “meaningful set of agreements” worldwide for cooperative action and the stable investment climate needed for the most efficient switch to clean technology.

This more optimistic scenario is at odds with growing calls from scientists and proactive nations for at least 20 per cent cuts below 1990 levels by 2020 and 60 per cent reductions by 2050.

Keys to the blueprints scenario are a worldwide price on carbon and decisive policy to bring carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies online as soon as possible, Shell argues. Ninety per cent of carbon from coal-fired power plants in OECD countries will have to be stored by 2050, the report says.

“Regardless of which route we choose, the world’s current predicament limits our room to maneuver. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to rising population and economic development,” van der Veer said.

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2008 Energy Scenarios To 2050 [PDF 1.5MB]