The big issues to be resolved for a new global climate treaty lie largely unmoved after two weeks of annual UN climate change talks in Poznan, Poland, just as they have throughout all of 2008.

Neither progress towards targets for reducing emissions nor decisions on a global market to preserve forests and to stimulate carbon capture and storage emerged from the meeting as had been hoped.

The headline challenge of agreeing targets and sharing them among developed and developing countries as the foundation of a new treaty remains. A goal of halving emissions by 2050 is still hanging while the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s call for developed countries to agree cuts of 25 to 40 per cent in their greenhouse emissions by 2020 looks further from reality than ever.

Before, during and after Poznan, there were no countries talking of such far-reaching targets. Even the EU, which had promised a target of 30 per cent if other developed nations followed said precious little about that commitment in finalising a 20 per cent reduction target for itself in Brussels on Friday. Australia kept quiet on its 2020 target during the Poznan talks and has come out days after to announce a modest 5 per cent cut, perhaps 15 per cent if other rich countries set stronger targets.

Political leaders and UN officials talked up the outcomes of the conference, saying important ground work was done even if no headline breakthroughs emerged. "This was intended to be a blue-collar conference that has to deliver practical results on road to Copenhagen, and it has,” said Yvo de Boer, head of the UN climate convention.

They were quick to make the point that this is only the half-way mark in the roadmap to a new treaty laid down in Bali, and that Copenhagen next December is the critical meeting. But this was not what was foreshadowed at Bali – there was to be a staged process over eight meetings up to and including Copenhagen where the so-far intractable issues of developed country mid-term targets and developing country obligations were to be thrashed out. But after four of these eight meetings, virtually no progress had been made.

Of course there are a couple of elephants in the room. One, the change of administration in the United States. It could be argued that the reality was, and still is, that real progress in global negotiations would have to await a new US President taking office post-Poznan.

But now that it is Obama, expectations have jumped that a big pro-climate shift in the US will occur and a far-reaching global deal will ultimately be possible. But this has meant many began looking past Poznan before it even began. Especially, after the incoming Obama administration made a point, on protocol, of not getting too involved in the current talks - “there’s only one US President at a time”.

Secondly, the slide of the developed world into recession has not helped. Positive talk of the opportunities the situation provides for a ‘green-led recovery’ were taken up at Poznan by UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon. Overcoming the financial and economic crisis would require a "massive stimulus," and “a big part of that spending should be an investment in a green future," Ban said. There was little acknowledgement, however, from governments very nervous of the cost impact of curbs on emissions on flattened economies.  

Green groups by and large criticised the talks for their lack of progress on agreeing steep cuts to emissions. One of the few voices putting the talks in a positive light was the US Environmental Defense Fund’s Jennifer Haverkamp. "A pattern is emerging of countries taking the negotiations seriously", she said, adding that the negotiations "could have been more ambitious and detailed, but they're enough".

Poznan did at least produce an agreement to work up a draft text for the Copenhagen agreement by next June.

Adaptation

As negotiations have been slow on mitigation actions in recent years, and the science warnings that time is running out to act to prevent the worst impacts of climate change grow, emphasis on adaptation has increased. Poznan has seen the Kyoto Protocol’s Adaptation Fund finally enabled so that it can begin funding measures in countries hardest hit.

A 2 per cent levy on CER carbon credits issued under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was approved. This would provide $60 to $80 million initially for the Fund to start allocating to developing countries. No agreement was reached for levies from the other Kyoto mechanisms, JI or the trade in AAUs. that will be needed longer term.

There were hopes for progress in Poznan in key sectors; the setting up of a funding structure for REDD or avoided deforestation, and an action plan for speeding up investment and deployment of carbon capture and storage.

Reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)

Agreement was not reached for a funding mechanism for rich countries to pay local forest communities in developing countries not to cut down their forests. Stopping deforestation, responsible for up to 20 per cent of global emissions, is one of the major challenges to be addressed in a new international climate treaty. The main sticking point arose over how to balance the rights of indigenous peoples under a new REDD payments scheme.

Ultimately, a joint declaration on the importance of taking early action on deforestation was the only conclusion forthcoming. The UK announced a $150 million contribution to avoided deforestation funding. Yvo de Boer said a REDD framework would have to wait until Copenhagen to emerge.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Negotiators baulked at adding carbon capture and storage to Kyoto’s CDM, a move which would have rallied international investment in the technology and deployment in developing countries in return for carbon credits. CCS is also seen by many as vital measure in tackling climate change by tackling the vast CO2 emissions that come from power plants burning fossil fuels for electricity.

Brazil led the resistance against CCS, saying it amounted to fossil fuel nations like Saudi Arabia and Australia trying to save its dirty energy exports when the CDM should be about renewable energy.

All in all, Poznan has left a lot of work to do in 2009. Even with the support of a sympathetic US President, the chances that all the unresolved challenges can be fully agreed and detailed by the end of Copenhagen are low.

Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Chicago Tribune, The Australian, Xinhua, Environment News Service, Mongabay.com

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