Russia’s announcement of weak greenhouse targets further ingrains the obstacles standing in the way of new global climate accord due in Copenhagen in less than six months time.

Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has become the latest leader to commit an industrialised country to an all-important 2020 “mid-term” target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But it’s one that would see emissions rise, not fall, over the next decade.

Medvedev set a target level of 10 to 15 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, earning instant criticism from climate campaigners and researchers.

The target does not amount to a cut at all between now and 2020, in fact a significant rise on current emissions. Like other former Soviet-bloc economies, Russia’s emissions plummeted in the early 1990s as old heavy industry shut down. While economic recovery now sees emissions growing again, in 2007 they were still 30 per cent below 1990 levels.

Leaving aside Russia’s current emissions, the 10-15 per cent target is well below the 25-40 per cent cuts that is being demanded of developed countries as the underpinning of a new climate treaty. The most authoritative body of scientists, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), says cuts of this magnitude are necessary if we are to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius this century. Developing countries, which include fast growing China and India, have set rich-nation adherence to the upper end of the IPCC’s target range as a precondition for any commitment of their own to start curbing emissions.

But Russia’s commitment, along with those of Japan, Canada, Australia and almost certainly the United States, for cuts well below 25 per cent put them along way short. This leaves a yawning gap to be bridged in international climate negotiations.

Some political analysts say that Russia’s target, those of other developed countries, and the position of China and India are cautious first negotiating stances that may well shift by the time the Copenhagen UN climate meeting arrives.

Medvedev cited a priority not to stifle “development potential” in setting Russia’s target. It’s a familiar cry from developed nations mired in recession. But IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri says rich nations are overstating the economic impact of emission cuts.

"I think there is too much being made of this fear. It's an exaggerated perception," Pachauri told Reuters.

Reuters 21-22/6/09