Japan’s modest target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 may be significantly increased if the opposition wins national elections next month.

If the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) were to convert a strong lead in opinion polls into an election victory, Japan would likely see it’s current target to cut emissions by 8 per cent below 1990 levels lifted to 25 per cent over the same period.

Such a change would have big implications for international climate negotiations, coming to a climax in December in Copenhagen when 190 nations are scheduled to finalise a new global climate treaty. At 25 per cent cuts, Japan would catapult to the top of developed nations on commitments to rein in emissions – targets that have so far proved to be a show-stopper in climate talks.

A 25 per cent target would bring Japan into the range of recommended cuts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Such levels are matched by only a handful of European countries, with the EU only committed to 20 per cent  overall currently. Japan's change would serve to undermine the stance at UN talks of other developed nations. US, Canada, Russia and Australia which have so far committed to substantially lower targets below 10 per cent, in turn allowing developing nations to reject any commitments of their own.

The current Liberal Democratic party (LDP) government has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the equivalent of 8 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. In a long awaited announcement of a mid-term emissions target last month, current prime minister Taro Aso declared a target for Japan of 15 per cent below 2005 levels.

DPJ secretary-general Katsuya Okada said in an interview with Bloomberg last week that the party would stand firm on a 25 per cent target, despite business criticism, and take the elevated goal to the UN negotiating table. But whether the DPJ can carry such a policy through the election on August 30 and into government has to be in some doubt given the strong opposition from the powerful business lobby in Japan.

Keidranen, representing big business, already says the more modest LDP target of 8 per cent cuts threaten a huge burden on business and consumers, Bloomberg reports. The lobby group wants a “fair” target allowing a 4 per cent increase in emissions. Like other pro-climate-action leaders around the world, however, Okada is selling the potential for environmental regulation to be a driver of a ‘green’ economic recovery.

While the steeper target has been DPJ policy for sometime, it has only recently begun to turn heads. The party has rarely seriously challenged the ruling LDP, which has governed Japan for all but ten months in the last 54 years. But latest opinion polls have the DPJ running at 42 per cent to the LDP’s 23 per cent, with Okada predicting an “historic” breaking of the country’s political orthodoxy at the election.

Japan is among the world’s biggest greenhouse emitters. It is currently outside its Kyoto greenhouse target for a cut of 6 per cent below 1990 levels and is weighing into international carbon markets buying offsets to reach target.

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