The latest scientific estimate of deforestation’s annual contribution to global greenhouse emissions downgrades widely-quoted figures from 17-20 per cent to 12 per cent. But the study producing the lower estimate says that it has more to do with rising energy and industrial emissions from burning fossil fuels – deforestation rates haven’t gone down.

Further more, when figures for peatland drainage and degradation are taken into account, overall land use changes away from natural systems still currently account for 15 per cent of global emissions.

In a study led by Guido van der Werf, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, the same method of calculation in official estimates was used, but with 2008 data on both fossil fuel and deforestation emissions.

The “official” estimate is that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which stated in its 2007 fourth assessment report that based on 1990s figures 20 per cent of annual greenhouse gas emissions came from clearing forests. But energy and industrial emissions have grown substantially over the past decade, putting that estimate out of date.

The study also says that “for about 30 developing countries, including Brazil, Bolivia, Indonesia, Myanmar and Zambia, deforestation and forest degradation are the largest source of CO2.”

Bloomberg 6/11/09, REDD-monitor 4/11/09