Updated 25 Nov 2009The Australian government appears to have secured the Senate numbers it needs to pass its proposed emissions trading scheme in a vote on Thursday after reaching agreement with the main opposition party’s leadership over amendments to ease the burden on industry.
A nearly month-long negotiation between climate change minister Penny Wong and opposition climate spokesman Ian MacFarlane wound up today when the opposition’s shadow cabinet accepted a $A7 billion package of amendments increasing compensation for the coal sector, trade-exposed emitters and electricity generators.
But Liberal opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull is struggling to manage internal dissension over the deal in a bitterly divided party. Seven Liberal Senators are needed to support the government on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) bill in the Senate for it to become law. Despite up to half the party's MPs still oposed to the bill and some climate-sceptic Senators vowing they will defy the party line and vote against it, the rebels appear not to have the numbers to defeat it.
“I am confident that enough senators will comply with the wishes of the shadow cabinet and party room, that the legislation will be passed," Turnbull told a news conference after a seven-hour party meeting on the issue.
The Rudd government has seen CPRS legislation delayed six months and rejected once by the Senate. It has set this week as a deadline for a second vote on the bill. A second rejection would give the government a trigger for an election it would surely win. But it has made it clear it would rather see the bill passed now before the Copenhagen climate conference.
It seems only a swift change of leadership of the Liberal Party could
now prevent the bill passing. Although unlikely, Turnbull's leadership
has been weakened by the CPRS battle and there is talk of a challenge
among the sceptics.
If passed this week, the CPRS will start in July 2011 covering about 70 per cent of the economy, now without agriculture, with a $10 fixed carbon price imposed in the first year.
Latest amendments agreed under the Wong-Macfarlane deal are:
Electricity generators: An increase of $4 billion in assistance to generators, increasing the total value of free permits from $3.3 billion to $7.3 billion.
Coal sector: $1.5 billion in transitional assistance now provided to the coal sector over five years, doubled from an initial $750 million, plus $270 million to assist coal mines reduce methane emissions.
Emissions-intensive trade-exposed industries: increased assistance to both tiers of recipients. Industries eligible for assistance to 60 per cent of their emissions have that raised to 66 per cent. Those eligible for 90 per cent assistance now get 94.5 per cent.
Medium to large manufacturers and miners: A Transitional Electricity Cost Assistance Program provides $1.1 billion to compensate for higher electricity prices in the early years.
Agriculture: Agricultural emissions will be excluded from direct liability for emissions under the CPRS. Offsets for emissions abatement will instead be allowed.
The Government will also ensure the CPRS takes into account voluntary action by households, counting their emission reductions, such as green power purchases, separately and in addition to the country’s 2020 emissions reduction target.
The extra $7 billion in assistance over ten years to 2020 would be recouped by lowering compensation to consumers. But the government said that revised estimates of the carbon price suggested initial levels are no longer required.
ABC, AAP 24/11/09
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