Pledges made by developed nations under the Copenhagen Accord amount to overall carbon emissions reductions of 12 to 19 per cent below 1990 levels, calculations by the World Resources Institute (WRI) show. The promises were formally lodged to the UNFCCC by the January 31 deadline set under the accord in December at Copenhagen.

While the pledges amounts to a substantial effort to cut emissions, it falls far short of the 25 to 40 per cent range called for by the IPCC global climate science body, WRI said following the soft deadline for commitments to the accord earlier this week. “These pledges will not be enough to meet even the lower range of emission reductions required to stabilize concentrations of CO2e at 450 ppm,” it says.

The commitments range is largely unchanged from commitments made in the lead-up to the UN’s Copenhagen climate conference. And US President Barack Obama acknowledged they were not enough to meet long-term climate goals when announcing the accord.

If the pledges are not increased, the WRI adds, the additional reductions required between 2020 and 2050 would be significant, with emissions needing to drop by roughly 2.5 per cent annually to reach a goal of 80 per cent below 1990 levels by mid-century.

The 12-19 per cent range reflects the conditions a number of nations have imposed on their commitments, making them variable at this time. Whether land-use and forestry emissions and removals are taken into account also heavily affects the potential contribution of some countries.

A detailed breakdown of each developed country’s commitments is available in a useful interactive online chart provided by WRI.

Another analysis of pledges - by Ecofys, Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research - tells a similar story. Their Climatetracker analysis finds that the shortfall in emissions reductions pledged to the accord would leave the world heading for 3 degrees Celsius rise in temperature by 2100, well above the 2 degrees limit seen as necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.

“Only 2 out of 10 developed countries’ reduction targets submitted to the Copenhagen Accord qualify as ‘sufficient’ to keep global temperature rise below 2°C,” Climatetracker concludes.

Its full analysis is also available online and in PDF at Climatetracker.org:

More detail on national pledges:
Nations meet Copenhagen Accord deadline