The upcoming UN climate convention talks in Bali in December may get a
last-minute shake-up with signs that Australia, an opponent of the
Kyoto Protocol and key US climate ally, may well switch sides on the
eve of the meeting.
Australia, the only other rich nation
along with the US not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, could soon see a
change of government to the pro-Kyoto Labor Party. A national election
is due and Prime Minister John Howard says he will have it by early
December at the latest. Most political observers believe it will be in
late November.
With the opposition Labor Party well ahead in
opinion polls under leader Kevin Rudd and consistently opposing the
conservative Howard government’s refusal to ratify Kyoto, a change of
government would likely see Australia change sides quickly, just weeks,
possibly days, before the Bali meeting begins on December 3.
"We're
certainly committed to immediately ratifying the protocol,” Labor’s
environment spokesman, Peter Garrett, told Reuters yesterday.
Such
a move would further isolate the United States in its stance against
firm caps on greenhouse gas emissions, underlined in two key high-level
meetings over the past week. While a new Labor government in Canberra
may not have time to formally ratify the Protocol, its delegation to
the annual meeting of the climate convention and the protocol parties
would be welcomed by Kyoto-supporting nations and would further shift
the balance against the US.
The stakes have been raised in the
stand-off over international climate action in the past week with
competing high-level meetings by
the UN and
the Bush Administration
held within days of each other in New York and Washington. The meetings
were billed by their respective hosts, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon
and US President George W Bush, as important precursors to the crucial
Bali meeting. But they saw little progress as both sides stuck to their
guns on the vexed question of which nations should commit to mandatory
emission reduction targets.
"I think that ratification, and
[Australia’s] participation will provide a needed boost to
international climate change diplomacy," said Garrett, former lead
singer of rock band Midnight Oil. "It certainly would highlight the
fact that those countries that were stand-outs were dwindling in
number."
It is unlikely, however, that an Australian switch to
adopt the Kyoto Protocol would lead to a major shift in policy by the
US at Bali to support firm caps on carbon emissions. Many observers
still believe a comprehensive agreement to extend Kyoto and its firm
targets approach beyond 2012 will not be possible until President Bush
leaves the White House in early 2009.
Garrett told Reuters a
Labor government would continue to support the Asia-Pacific climate
pact, AP6, which promotes clean technology deployment across six
nations including the US, Japan, China and India. He also said he would
try and deliver an emissions trading scheme in 2010, a year or two
earlier than the Howard plan.
But Labor is not across the line
yet. Some local political pundits believe that a tough election
campaign may see the poll gap narrow as the 11-year Howard government
mounts a desperate bid to retain office.
Ian Hamilton
carbonpositive
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